Rates, FX, equities, commodities and volatility — one editorial read each morning, with the full archive below.
The stagflation regime holds (growth Z -0.49, core PCE 3.2% YoY, inflation deviation +60), and Tuesday's session was really about the market waiting on two things at once: Wednesday's FOMC decision and whether the AI hardware complex can find a bottom. Brent fell another 2% to $86.57 (WTI -1.6% to $81.29) as the Iran p…
A housekeeping note first: the data feed did not refresh over the past week, so the latest complete session in this edition remains Monday, June 29. That session was a US growth melt-up with a harder …
The prior session was a US growth-led melt-up. The Nasdaq 100 added 2.25%, the S&P 500 closed up 1.18%, and the Dow cleared 52,000 for the first time. The VIX fell 4.1% to 17.65. Two catalysts did the…
Week in review: a clean tech de-rating, hedged with defensives and duration. The Nasdaq 100 fell 4.24% on the week and technology was the worst sector at -5.40%, while the S&P 500 lost only 1.95% beca…
The session this brief covers, Thursday's US tape, was quiet on the surface and busy underneath. The S&P 500 finished flat at -0.01%, but money rotated: industrials rose 2.17%, healthcare 1.49% and ma…
Two forces ran the tape into June 25. The first is the new Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh, whose debut meeting paired a hawkish dot plot with a far shorter statement and much less hand-holding, and…
Tech did the damage. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.29% to 29,347 and the S&P 500 dropped 1.44% to 7,365, with the technology sector off 4.14% as the AI trade came under pressure that started in Asia. South Ko…
Volatility crept back on Monday even as the tape stayed orderly. The MOVE index jumped 7.1% and the VIX rose 5.4% to 17.3, with rate vol leading, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.37% to 7,473 and Treasury …
The week belonged to the unwind. A Gulf war scare that had bid up oil, gold and volatility in the prior weeks reversed hard once Washington and Tehran stepped back and traffic moved again through the …
The war trade unwound. With Washington and Tehran stepping back and traffic moving again through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium that had bid up oil, gold and volatility drained out fast. The N…
Stagflation regime holds (growth Z -0.49, inflation deviation +60), but the session was a textbook risk-premium unwind as the US-Iran deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz blew up the war trade —…