Week in review · 22 to 26 Jun 2026

Macro Weekly Brief

Week in review: a clean tech de-rating, hedged with defensives and duration. The Nasdaq 100 fell 4.24% on the week and technology was the worst sector at -5.40%, while the S&P 500 lost only 1.95% because money did not leave equities so much as move inside them. Health care rose 7.32%, utilities 3.22%, real estate 3.15% and staples 1.69%, the classic defensive rotation, and the contribution math is stark: healthcare alone added 0.77 of a percentage point to the index while discretionary subtracted a quarter point. Treasuries rallied across the belly, the 5-year down 12bp and the 2- and 7-year down 11bp, but the engine was a commodity collapse, not a dovish Fed. Silver fell 9.85%, WTI 6.56% and Brent 6.05% as the Hormuz risk premium leaked back out, which pulled 5-year breakevens down 6bp and let the market trim hike insurance. Global Macro Method called it an inflation refund, not a Fed pivot, and that framing held all week. The tell that this was risk reduction rather than a growth scare: the VIX jumped 12.26% while the MOVE index barely moved and high-yield spreads widened 12bp. Equity-specific stress, not a systemic one. Regime stays stagflation, growth below trend with core PCE at 3.2% and a Fed under Warsh that is no longer handing the market a free put.

Cross-asset wrap

DollarThe dollar index firmed 0.34% on the week, a grind rather than a surge, and the strength was selective. It came against the commodity and high-beta currencies caught in the metals and energy unwind, the Australian dollar down 1.52% and the Mexican peso off 0.88%, while EUR/USD slipped 0.67% as euro-area curves rallied harder than the US. The yen held flat at -0.22% on USD/JPY. BofA told clients to stay long the dollar into the third quarter, and the price action this week fit that call: a firmer real-yield backdrop and falling commodities both point the same way.

RatesA belly-led rally. The 5-year fell 12bp, the 2- and 7-year 11bp, the 3-year 10bp, the 10-year 9bp and the 30-year 7bp, leaving 2s10s 4bp steeper at +0.31. Real yields did less of the work than the headline suggests, the 10-year TIPS yield down only 4bp, while breakevens led the move, the 5-year down 6bp and the 10-year down 5bp. That is the signature of a commodity-driven repricing: inflation compensation falls, the market removes obsolete hike insurance, but it does not price a durable easing cycle. Credit told the other half of the story. High-yield spreads widened 12bp on the week to 278bp, a quiet risk-off tick under the bond rally.

EquitiesA 2% index loss hid a violent rotation. The Nasdaq 100 fell 4.24% and technology 5.40%, the worst-hit corner, while the Russell 2000 actually rose 1.02% and the Dow gained 0.60%. Health care led everything at +7.32%, with utilities (+3.22%), real estate (+3.15%) and staples (+1.69%) close behind, and the losers were the growth-tied sectors, communication services (-2.99%) and consumer discretionary (-2.38%). Europe was softer, the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.14%, and Asia weaker still, the Hang Seng off 5.24%, with Samsung and SK Hynix triggering trading suspensions in Seoul during the week.

CommoditiesThe unwind ran all week. Silver fell 9.85%, the sharpest move in the complex, WTI lost 6.56% and Brent 6.05% as the Strait of Hormuz premium drained out of crude, and gold and copper both fell about 2.6%. Natural gas was the lone gainer, up 1.29%. J.P. Morgan's commodities desk framed the oil round trip as the right shock at the wrong price, and the cross-asset read is the important part: lower energy is exactly what let bonds rally and inflation breakevens cool.

VolatilityEquity vol repriced, rate vol did not. The VIX rose 12.26% on the week to 18.4, around the 54th percentile of its five-year range, while the MOVE index sits at 67, near the 10th percentile, and the vol risk premium is a thin 2 points. That gap is the cleanest cross-asset signal of the week: the stress was concentrated in equities, specifically the AI and semiconductor complex, and never spread to rates or credit in a way that would mark a broader de-risking.

The tech de-rating was the week, not the index

Strip out one sector and the week looks calm. Leave it in and it was a rout. Technology fell 5.40% and the Nasdaq 100 4.24%, with semiconductors leading the decline and the damage spreading through Asia, where Samsung and SK Hynix hit trading suspensions in Seoul. The macro backdrop actually improved into this: oil fell, Treasury yields dropped, inflation compensation cooled. A healthy growth tape would have rewarded that. Instead the AI complex sold off anyway, which is the signal. The market stopped asking whether AI earnings are strong, Micron's results last week answered that, and started asking whether the marginal buyer is still there at these prices after a violent round trip in flows. The reported delay to OpenAI's public debut sharpened the question, because the listed names have been carrying private-market expectation on their backs, and when the liquidity event moves further out they have to justify more of the story through their own margins and capital discipline.

Flows & positioning inference

The flow data was not subtle. Global Macro Method flagged a BofA report showing US equities saw their first outflow since March and technology funds saw record withdrawals only a week after record inflows. That whipsaw is what turns every piece of negative news into a test of sponsorship, and it explains why the selling fed on itself even as the discount-rate impulse improved. Watch whether the semis find a bid at the open or whether the momentum unwind has further to run, and whether the won and Asian tech proxies keep leading the complex lower.

Nasdaq 100 leads a tech-specific de-rating1M · May 22 → Jun 26

30,661

28,508

May 22

Jun 26

Sources: Global Macro Method · J.P. Morgan At Any Rate · Financial Times

Defensives did the hedging, and it worked

The other side of the tech selloff was a textbook flight up the quality and defensiveness ladder. Health care rose 7.32% on the week and carried the index almost single-handedly, adding 0.77 of a percentage point to the S&P's return, more than offsetting the drag from discretionary. Utilities gained 3.22%, real estate 3.15% and staples 1.69%, the rate-sensitive and low-beta corners that benefit when yields fall and growth conviction wobbles. This is what an orderly de-risking looks like: capital does not flee equities, it crowds into the parts of the market that pay you to wait. The Russell 2000 rising 1.02% on the week fits the same picture, lower yields helping the longer-duration-equity laggards while the crowded megacap-growth leaders gave back.

Flows & positioning inference

Defensive leadership this broad, four sectors up more than 1.5% while tech falls more than 5%, is a rotation with conviction, not a one-day shuffle. The risk is that it is a late-cycle tell. Sector breadth is still healthy on the surface, 73% of stocks above their 50-day and 82% above their 200-day, but leadership that narrows to healthcare and utilities is the market hedging growth, not embracing it. If the next labor prints soften, expect this rotation to extend rather than reverse.

Health care carries the index as growth fades1M · May 22 → Jun 26

160.3

146.4

May 22

Jun 26

Sources: Macro Morning Brief cross-asset desk · Morgan Stanley Thoughts on the Market

An inflation refund, not a Fed pivot

Treasuries rallied hard, the 5-year down 12bp and the belly leading, but the reason matters more than the move. Global Macro Method put it well: the rates market got an inflation refund, not a Fed pivot. Oil fell, the immediate Hormuz premium leaked out of front-end pricing, and 5-year breakevens dropped 6bp, so the market could remove the hike insurance it had bought at the peak of the energy scare. What it could not do was price a durable easing cycle. The Fed reaction function under Warsh is asymmetric: when oil rises the committee responds quickly to defend credibility, when oil falls it waits for confirmation before reversing the hawkish impulse. That leaves the front end stuck in a policy-versus-data gap, able to trim obsolete tightening but not to rally on a clean dovish story until the inflation sequence confirms the shock has faded beyond energy.

Flows & positioning inference

The cleanest expression of this is that breakevens, not real yields, led the rally, the 10-year TIPS yield down just 4bp against a 5bp drop in the 10-year breakeven. That is a commodity story wearing a duration costume. The trade is a tactical front-end receiver, not yet the start of a broader duration regime, and the risk is two-sided: any re-acceleration in the next inflation prints snaps the hike premium back in, while a deeper equity selloff extends the bid as a hedge. Watch the inflation-swap curve more than the nominal-yield chart.

Belly-led rally as breakevens cool1M · May 21 → Jun 25

4.29

4.13

May 21

Jun 25

Sources: Global Macro Method · J.P. Morgan At Any Rate

The commodity collapse that powered the bond rally

Silver fell 9.85% on the week, WTI 6.56% and Brent 6.05%, with gold and copper both down about 2.6%, a broad and persistent washout that is better read as deleveraging than as a clean demand signal. The energy leg was the macro pivot. As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz kept flowing despite the headlines, the market treated the episode as a disruption risk rather than a sustained supply threat, and the risk premium drained back out. J.P. Morgan's commodities desk framed it as the right shock at the wrong price, the geopolitical scare real but mispriced at the peak. For the rest of the cross-asset complex this was the prime mover: lower energy cooled inflation breakevens, which let Treasuries rally and gave the Fed one less tail to defend.

Flows & positioning inference

A decline this synchronized across silver, oil, gold and copper, into a firm dollar, is a momentum unwind with trend followers still being shaken out. The absence of an obvious circuit-breaker, a weaker dollar would be one, keeps the path of least resistance lower. Silver's slide is now the sharpest in the group and the one to watch: whether it finds a bid or drags the wider metals stack further will tell you if this is washing out or just pausing.

Silver leads a 6-to-10% weekly commodity slide1M · May 26 → Jun 28

76.3

58.1

May 26

Jun 28

Sources: J.P. Morgan At Any Rate · Macro Morning Brief commodities desk

Equity vol up, rate vol asleep

The cross-asset vol picture was the week's best lie detector. The VIX rose 12.26% to 18.4, sitting around the 54th percentile of its five-year range, while the MOVE index, the rate-vol gauge, holds at 67, near the 10th percentile, and barely budged. High-yield spreads widened 12bp to 278bp, a real but modest move, and investment-grade barely flinched at +2bp. Put those together and the message is that the stress was equity-specific, concentrated in the AI and semiconductor names, and never escalated into the rates or credit markets where a genuine de-risking would show up first. A 12% jump in the VIX off a low base, with the MOVE asleep, is a sentiment wobble in one crowded trade, not a financial-conditions event.

Flows & positioning inference

The stock-bond correlation sits at +0.62 over 60 days, the positive reading that defines an inflation regime, which is why bonds only partly hedged the equity drop this week. National financial conditions are still loose, the NFCI at -0.52 and around the 22nd percentile, so the system has plenty of slack to absorb an equity-led shake-out. The level to watch is the MOVE: if rate vol starts to climb alongside the VIX, that is when an equity rotation becomes something larger.

VIX jumps while rate vol stays pinned1M · May 22 → Jun 26

22.2

15.3

May 22

Jun 26

Sources: Macro Morning Brief cross-asset desk

The rest of the world out-rallied the US in bonds

The Treasury rally was real, but it was not the biggest one. Euro-area curves fell about 13bp across the week and gilts 11bp to 13bp, both outpacing the US move of 7bp to 12bp. That divergence is the heart of a call making the rounds: Allspring's George Bory told CNBC the best government bond market may sit outside the United States, in places like the UK, Europe and Australia where central banks have already tightened and the market has priced more to come. His point is about the reaction function. The ECB raised rates a few weeks ago and is expected to do a bit more, but unless the Fed validates those moves, the rest of the world has to move at a slower pace than is priced, which leaves room for those curves to rally as the tightening expectations get pared.

Flows & positioning inference

The trade lines up with the FX tape. Euro-area curves rallying harder than the US dollar's, alongside EUR/USD down 0.67% on the week, is the bond-FX combination you get when foreign rate expectations come down faster than US ones. For a dollar-based investor the appeal of non-US duration is partly the carry-and-roll on curves that have more priced to give back, partly diversification away from a US front end stuck in its policy-versus-data gap. Watch euro-area inflation prints this week as the test of how much further those curves can run.

US 10-year rallies, but less than Europe1M · May 21 → Jun 25

4.57

4.4

May 21

Jun 25

Sources: CNBC · Macro Morning Brief rates desk

A firm but selective dollar

The dollar index added 0.34% on the week, and the composition tells you what is driving it. Strength concentrated against the commodity and high-beta currencies caught in the metals and energy unwind, the Australian dollar down 1.52% and the Mexican peso off 0.88%, while the majors were quieter, EUR/USD down 0.67% and USD/JPY flat. A firm dollar alongside falling commodities is internally consistent: both reflect the same deleveraging and the same firmer real-yield backdrop. BofA told clients to stay long the dollar into the third quarter, and nothing this week argued against it. The won was the one cross to firm late, USD/KRW down 0.74% on the final session even as it ended the week slightly higher, a reminder that Asian FX is trading the regional equity tape tick for tick.

Flows & positioning inference

Late-cycle dollar strength against high-beta FX stays the path of least resistance while oil and metals fall. The majors look range-bound until a US catalyst, and the calendar delivers one soon: this week is heavy on US labor data, which Global Macro Method flagged as the event to position for. A soft payrolls print is the most plausible trigger to break the dollar out of its grind, in either direction depending on how the Fed reads it.

Dollar grinds higher against high-beta FX1M · May 26 → Jun 28

101.6

98.9

May 26

Jun 28

Sources: Macro Morning Brief FX desk · Global Macro Method

Expensive resilience: the regime sharpens

Global Macro Method's phrase for this week was expensive resilience, and the data backs it. The economy is not rolling over, inflation is not defeated, and the Fed under Warsh is no longer offering the market a free put. Our regime read agrees: growth sits below trend at a -0.49 z-score, core PCE holds at 3.2%, and the inflation deviation gauge is still elevated at 60. That combination is awkward for consensus portfolios built around slower growth, easier money and higher multiples, because the policy price of holding-up activity is going up, not down. The week's rotation, out of long-duration growth and into defensives and the belly of the curve, is the market starting to price that awkwardness rather than fight it.

Flows & positioning inference

A positive stock-bond correlation of +0.62 is the practical problem for the 60/40 crowd: in an inflation regime bonds stop reliably hedging equities, which is exactly what played out as the VIX rose while the Treasury rally only partly cushioned the blow. The portfolio implication that follows from the desk research is to lean on real assets and quality cash flows over multiple expansion, and to treat any sharp duration rally, like this week's, as a tactical refund rather than the start of the easing cycle the long bond is implying.

Real yields ease but stay restrictive1M · May 21 → Jun 25

2.29

2.06

May 21

Jun 25

Sources: Global Macro Method

The BIS puts a name to the AI worry

The structural bear case under the week's tech selloff got an institutional voice. The Bank for International Settlements warned that AI exuberance risks ending in a lengthy investment bust, a striking line from the central bankers' central bank and a marker that the capex boom is now a financial-stability conversation, not just an equity-valuation one. The timing was pointed, landing the same week the listed AI complex de-rated. Separately, the Financial Times reported Google is capping Meta's use of its Gemini models as AI demand strains capacity, a concrete sign that compute scarcity is starting to ration even the largest players. The two stories rhyme: enormous spending commitments meeting real physical and financial limits, which is the setup the BIS is warning about.

Flows & positioning inference

For positioning this reframes the tech drawdown from a momentum wobble into something with a fundamental anchor. If the marginal AI dollar is being questioned by flows, as the record tech-fund outflows suggest, and by a balance-sheet-aware institution like the BIS, the bar for the complex to reclaim leadership rises. Not every desk agrees, Wolfe Research stayed bullish on equities and sees AI and semiconductors driving second-half gains, so this is a genuine two-way debate. The cleanest tell will be whether semis can hold a bid into the next earnings season or whether each rally gets sold.

Technology rolls over as the AI capex debate hardens3M · Mar 18 → Jun 26

198.2

127.5

Mar 18

Jun 26

Sources: Financial Times · Bank for International Settlements · Global Macro Method

Crypto rolls over with the risk tape

Bitcoin fell 5.02% on the week and slipped below $60, 000, trading like a high-beta tech proxy rather than the uncorrelated hedge its backers advertise. The drivers were the same ones pressuring the AI complex: ETF outflows, a firmer dollar and a Fed outlook that is offering no relief. The structural strain showed up in the corporate layer too. Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin's biggest corporate buyer is reeling as its funding edge vanishes, the kind of headline that matters because leveraged corporate accumulation has been a meaningful source of demand, and a financing model that depended on cheap capital and a rising price gets tested fast when both turn. With gold also down 2.63% on the week, the two assets most often pitched as alternatives to the dollar both fell while the dollar firmed.

Flows & positioning inference

Crypto trading in lockstep with the Nasdaq removes its diversification claim exactly when a portfolio would want it. The ETF-outflow and corporate-funding stories point to a demand base that thins out when leverage gets expensive, which makes the asset vulnerable to the same flow dynamics hitting tech funds. Watch whether ETF flows stabilize or whether the corporate-buyer stress turns into forced selling, which would be the mechanism that takes Bitcoin meaningfully below the $60, 000 level.

Bitcoin slips below $60, 000 on outflows1M · May 24 → Jun 28

77,280

59,520

May 24

Jun 28

Sources: Bloomberg · Investing.com

Central bank speeches & quotes

ECB1W

Christine Lagarde, President

Money in transition: digitalisation and innovation in payments · Jun 22

Lagarde used a keynote on payments to make a sovereignty argument, not a rate-path one. Her thesis is that tokenisation and the weaponisation of financial infrastructure have turned control of the payments rails into a strategic question for Europe, and that the digital euro and integrated settlement are the answer. No signal on the policy rate, but a clear statement of where the ECB is spending its institutional energy.

“Eight centuries ago, the fairs of Champagne were where Europe settled its accounts.”

Frames European payments fragmentation as an old problem with strategic stakes.

“geopolitics has turned the ownership of financial infrastructure into an instrument of power, so that sovereignty now matters where once it did not”

The core of the case for a digital euro and European settlement autonomy.

“Technology is rewriting how money is exchanged and trades can be settled, most of all through tokenisation.”

Signals where the ECB sees the next structural shift in market plumbing.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

Bank of England1W

Swati Dhingra, External member, Monetary Policy Committee

Climate, energy and the drivers of inflation · Jun 24

Dhingra, the MPC's most consistent dove, used the week's energy spike to argue that a growing share of inflation comes from forces monetary policy cannot reach, geopolitics, fossil-fuel dependence and climate shocks. The policy implication she leans toward is patience: tightening into supply-driven inflation risks doing damage without addressing the cause. A relevant frame for a week when an oil unwind did the disinflating that rate hikes could not.

“inflation is often driven by forces beyond the reach of monetary policy”

The dovish case for looking through energy-driven inflation spikes.

“The recent rise in energy prices has once again exposed the vulnerability of economies to geopolitical shocks and the difficult choices they create for central banks.”

Directly ties this week's Hormuz oil move to the policy dilemma.

“Climate change is relevant to inflation through three distinct channels.”

Sets up energy and climate as structural, not transitory, inflation drivers.

Source: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

Bank of England1W

Alan Taylor, External member, Monetary Policy Committee

The role of the central forecast · Jun 23

Taylor defended the Bank's central forecast at a moment when the April Monetary Policy Report dropped a central projection in favour of scenarios. His argument is that the forecast remains the backbone of the MPC's communication even as the world gets harder to model, a quiet pushback on the move to scenario-based guidance that markets have found harder to read.

“our forecast machine also has its functional limits, or performance envelope”

Concedes the model's limits while defending its central role in policy.

“the Central line is partially suspended”

A tube-delay joke that frames his worry about the Bank's own forecast communication breaking down.

Source: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

ECB1W

Joachim Nagel, President, Deutsche Bundesbank

New forms of money and monetary transmission · Jun 22

Nagel opened a Bundesbank-Bank of Canada conference by flagging that stablecoins, CBDCs and tokenised deposits could change how monetary policy actually transmits, by altering how liquidity flows through banks. A research-agenda speech rather than a policy signal, but it shows the hawkish wing of the Council is thinking about the plumbing risks of new money, not just the rate path.

“Our current monetary system relies on the interplay between central bank money and private money.”

States the foundation that new digital money forms could disturb.

“If these new forms of money change how liquidity flows through banks and markets, they may also change how monetary policy affects inflation.”

Links payments innovation directly to the transmission of policy.

Source: https://www.bundesbank.de/

Federal Reserve1W

Lisa Cook, Governor

Welcome remarks on small business credit · Jun 24

Cook used welcome remarks at a research event to stress how much the labor market and the broader economy run through small firms, and why the data on them matters for the dual mandate. No new rate guidance, but a reminder of where she looks for early signs of stress, a relevant lens given the consumer and labor data due this week.

“99.9 percent of businesses in the U.S. have fewer than 500 employees, and since 1995 those businesses have accounted for 61 percent of net new job creation”

Explains why small-business stress is an early warning for the labor mandate.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/

Federal Reserve1W

Christopher Waller, Governor

Welcoming remarks, International Roles of the Dollar conference · Jun 22

Waller opened the Fed's conference on the dollar's international role with ceremonial remarks rather than policy guidance. The venue itself is the signal: the Fed continues to treat reserve-currency status as a strategic asset worth studying, a backdrop to the firm-dollar tape this week. No quotable policy content surfaced in the transcript.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/

Federal Reserve1W

John Williams, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Williams remarks · Jun 26

Williams, a permanent FOMC voter and the committee's center of gravity, spoke twice this week. No transcript text reached the feeds. As New York Fed president his framing of the growth-versus-inflation balance under Warsh carries weight; treat the appearances as background to the week's belly-led rally rather than a fresh catalyst.

Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/

Federal Reserve1W

Neel Kashkari, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Kashkari remarks · Jun 26

Kashkari spoke without transcript text in the feed. He has swung between hawkish and patient stances over the cycle, so his read on whether the commodity-driven drop in inflation compensation is durable would matter. Nothing quotable surfaced; listed as roster confirmation.

Source: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/

Federal Reserve1W

Austan Goolsbee, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Goolsbee remarks · Jun 25

Goolsbee, among the more dovish voices, appeared with no transcript text available. His standing concern is that the hawkish projections under the new chair risk over-tightening into a slowing economy, a view that fits the week's cooling breakevens. Background only.

Source: https://www.chicagofed.org/

ECB1D

Isabel Schnabel, Executive Board member

Schnabel speech · Jun 27

Schnabel, who anchors the Council's hawkish wing, spoke again at the end of the week with no transcript text in the feed. Her consistent message is caution against easing prematurely with inflation still above target, which reinforces an ECB that has already moved and is in no hurry to do more. No quotable content surfaced.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

ECB1W

Philip Lane, Chief Economist

Lane speech · Jun 25

Lane, who sets the analytical frame for the Governing Council, spoke twice this week without transcript text reaching the feeds. The live tension he manages is a euro-area economy near stagnation with inflation still above target, and his message tends to stress patience. Background to the euro-area curve rally.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

ECB1W

Boris Vujčić, Governing Council member, Governor of the Croatian National Bank

Vujčić speech · Jun 26

Vujčić spoke twice this week with no transcript text in the feed. As a Council member he sits near the hawkish-neutral middle. His appearances add to a chorus of ECB officials reinforcing a hold after the recent hike rather than signalling the next move.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

ECB1W

Piero Cipollone, Executive Board member

Cipollone speech · Jun 25

Cipollone spoke twice, both without transcript text. His remit centers on payments and the digital euro, so his remarks rarely move the rate-path debate but reinforce the same digital-money agenda Lagarde and Nagel pushed this week. Listed for completeness.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

ECB1W

Frank Elderson, Executive Board member

Elderson speech · Jun 23

Elderson spoke without transcript text in the feed. His focus is supervision and climate risk rather than the policy rate, which dovetails with Dhingra's energy-and-climate inflation theme this week. Background only.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

ECB1W

José Luis Escrivá, Governing Council member, Governor of the Banco de España

Escrivá speech · Jun 22

Escrivá spoke twice this week with no transcript text available. As Spain's governor he tends to emphasise the activity side of the mandate, relevant for a euro-area economy hovering near stagnation. No quotable content surfaced.

Source: https://www.bde.es/

Bank of England1W

Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability

Breeden speech · Jun 24

Breeden spoke without transcript text in the feed. Her financial-stability remit is the natural lens on a week of AI-capex warnings and a tech drawdown. Treat her appearance as background; nothing quotable reached the data.

Source: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

Bank of Canada1W

Tiff Macklem, Governor

Macklem speech · Jun 23

Macklem spoke with no transcript text in the feed. The Bank of Canada co-hosted the Bundesbank conference on new forms of money this week, so his remarks likely shared Nagel's payments-and-transmission focus. The Canadian curve was little changed on the week. Listed as roster confirmation.

Source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/

RBA1D

Michele Bullock, Governor

Bullock speech · Jun 28

Bullock closed the week with no transcript text available. With the Australian dollar the week's weakest major, down 1.52% on the commodity unwind, and RBA minutes due in the days ahead, her stance on whether to stay patient is the live question for Aussie rates. No quotable content surfaced.

Source: https://www.rba.gov.au/

Asset class breakdown · the ‘why’ (weekly moves)

Equity indices · 1-week

S&P 500

-1.95%

7,354 · 1D -0.05%

5Y trend

Down 1.95% on the week, a modest index loss that masked a violent rotation out of tech and into defensives.

S&P 500 · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

7,610

7,267

May 22

Jun 26

Nasdaq 100

-4.24%

29,118 · 1D -1.09%

5Y trend

Fell 4.24%, the week's clearest casualty as the AI and semiconductor complex de-rated on flow reversals and the OpenAI listing delay.

Nasdaq 100 · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

30,661

28,508

May 22

Jun 26

Dow Jones Industrial Average

+0.60%

51,876 · 1D -0.09%

5Y trend

Up 0.60%, supported by its lighter tech weight and the healthcare and defensive bid.

Dow Jones Industrial Average · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

52,000

49,919

May 22

Jun 26

Russell 2000

+1.02%

3,010 · 1D +0.07%

5Y trend

Gained 1.02% as falling yields helped small caps while megacap growth gave back, a quiet breadth positive.

Russell 2000 · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

3,010

2,834

May 22

Jun 26

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

+12.26%

18.41 · 1D -2.54%

5Y trend

Rose 12.26% to 18.4, around the 54th percentile, an equity-specific stress signal that the MOVE index did not confirm.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

22.2

15.3

May 22

Jun 26

ICE BofA MOVE Index (rate vol)

+2.14%

66.79 · 1D -0.46%

5Y trend

Up 2.14% to 67, near the 10th percentile; rate vol stayed asleep while equity vol jumped, the week's key divergence.

ICE BofA MOVE Index (rate vol) · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

78.4

65.4

May 22

Jun 26

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index

+2.86%

20.13 · 1D -0.98%

5Y trend

Up 2.86%, a modest lift in three-month vol that kept the term structure mildly upward-sloping.

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

22.9

18.7

May 22

Jun 26

Euro Stoxx 50

-1.14%

6,222 · 1D -0.73%

5Y trend

Down 1.14% in a softer European week as euro-area curves rallied and growth-tied names lagged.

Euro Stoxx 50 · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

6,323

6,010

May 22

Jun 26

Nikkei 225

-2.65%

69,361 · 1D -4.15%

5Y trend

Off 2.65% on the week, dragged by the regional tech and semiconductor selloff that hit Samsung and SK Hynix in Seoul.

Nikkei 225 · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

72,366

63,339

May 22

Jun 26

Hang Seng

-5.24%

22,672 · 1D -1.76%

5Y trend

Down 5.24%, the weakest major equity index, on the same Asian tech derating.

Hang Seng · 1-month1M · May 22 → Jun 26

26,038

22,672

May 22

Jun 26

S&P 500 sectors · 1-week

Health Care (XLV)+7.32%

160.34 · 1D +3.03%

Best sector at +7.32%, the defensive leader that carried the index almost on its own.

Contribution: +0.769pp

Utilities (XLU)+3.22%

46.2 · 1D +0.76%

Up 3.22% as yields fell and the rotation favored low-beta income.

Contribution: +0.081pp

Real Estate (XLRE)+3.15%

45.24 · 1D +1.46%

Gained 3.15%, the rate-sensitive bid alongside utilities.

Contribution: +0.069pp

Consumer Staples (XLP)+1.69%

84.71 · 1D +0.92%

Up 1.69%, defensive staples catching the rotation out of growth.

Contribution: +0.093pp

Industrials (XLI)+0.16%

181.2 · 1D -1.59%

Roughly flat at +0.16% as cyclicals neither led nor lagged.

Contribution: +0.014pp

Energy (XLE)+0.13%

53.84 · 1D -0.46%

Up 0.13% despite a near-7% drop in crude, a resilient relative showing in a weak energy tape.

Contribution: +0.004pp

Financials (XLF)+0.00%

53.57 · 1D +0.22%

Flat on the week as the curve steepened only modestly.

Contribution: +0pp

Materials (XLB)-0.41%

51.6 · 1D -0.46%

Down 0.41% with soft metals weighing on materials.

Contribution: -0.008pp

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-2.38%

114.37 · 1D +0.90%

Down 2.38%, a growth-tied laggard as megacap discretionary names sold off.

Contribution: -0.25pp

Communication Services (XLC)-2.99%

106.18 · 1D +0.57%

Worst of the cyclicals after tech at -2.99%, the other megacap-growth loser.

Contribution: -0.284pp

Technology (XLK)-5.40%

181.11 · 1D -1.87%

Worst sector at -5.40%, the center of the week's de-rating as semis led lower.

Contribution: -1.728pp

Weekly leadership was unmistakably defensive. Health care led at +7.32% and was the single largest positive contributor to the S&P, adding 0.77 of a percentage point, with utilities (+3.22%), real estate (+3.15%) and staples (+1.69%) filling out the top of the table. The cyclical and growth corners lagged: technology fell 5.40%, communication services 2.99% and consumer discretionary 2.38%, while energy (+0.13%), financials (flat) and industrials (+0.16%) hovered around unchanged. The split, low-beta and rate-sensitive sectors up while megacap-growth-linked sectors fall, is the rotation of a market hedging growth as yields drop, not one chasing it. Breadth stayed broad beneath the surface, 73% of stocks above their 50-day and 82% above their 200-day, but leadership narrowing to healthcare and utilities is a late-cycle tell worth respecting.

Rates & volatility · 1-week

UST 2Y (%)4.09% (-11bp 1W · -2bp 1D)

Down 11bp on the week as the front end trimmed hike insurance with the Hormuz oil premium leaking out.

UST 2Y (%)1M · May 21 → Jun 25

4.24%

3.98%

May 21

Jun 25

UST 10Y (%)4.4% (-9bp 1W · -1bp 1D)

Down 9bp as inflation compensation fell with oil; real yields did less of the work than the headline suggests.

UST 10Y (%)1M · May 21 → Jun 25

4.57%

4.4%

May 21

Jun 25

UST 30Y (%)4.86% (-7bp 1W · +0bp 1D)

Down 7bp, the long end lagging the belly in a bull-flattening move.

UST 30Y (%)1M · May 21 → Jun 25

5.1%

4.86%

May 21

Jun 25

2s10s Spread (%)0.31% (+4bp 1W · +0bp 1D)

Steepened 4bp to +0.31 as the very front end outran the long end on the hike-premium unwind.

2s10s Spread (%)1M · May 22 → Jun 26

0.49%

0.27%

May 22

Jun 26

10Y TIPS Real Yield (%)2.19% (-4bp 1W · -4bp 1D)

The 10-year real yield fell only 4bp, the tell that this was a commodity-and-breakeven rally, not a real-rate easing.

10Y TIPS Real Yield (%)1M · May 21 → Jun 25

2.29%

2.06%

May 21

Jun 25

US HY OAS (%)2.78% (+12bp 1W · +2bp 1D)

High-yield spreads widened 12bp to 278bp, a quiet risk-off tick under the bond rally worth watching.

US HY OAS (%)1M · May 21 → Jun 25

2.8%

2.63%

May 21

Jun 25

FX & commodities · 1-week

US Dollar Index (DXY)101.37 (+0.34% 1W · +0.01% 1D)

Up 0.34% on the week, firm but selective, strongest against commodity and high-beta currencies.

EUR/USD1.1386 (-0.67% 1W · +0.21% 1D)

Down 0.67% as euro-area curves rallied harder than the US and tightening expectations were pared.

USD/JPY161.79 (+0.22% 1W · -0.01% 1D)

Roughly flat at -0.22%; the yen tracked risk sentiment more than rate differentials.

GBP/USD1.3194 (-0.11% 1W · +0.04% 1D)

USD/CHF0.8102 (+0.28% 1W · -0.04% 1D)

USD/CAD1.4193 (+0.13% 1W · -0.06% 1D)

AUD/USD0.6897 (-1.52% 1W · -0.06% 1D)

Fell 1.52%, the weakest major as the commodity unwind hit the high-beta Aussie.

USD/CNY6.7975 (+0.43% 1W · +0.11% 1D)

USD/MXN17.5 (+0.88% 1W · -0.06% 1D)

USD/KRW1,535 (+0.25% 1W · -0.74% 1D)

Up 0.25% on the week but down 0.74% on the final session as the won firmed late with the regional tape.

WTI Crude69.91 (-6.56% 1W · +0.98% 1D)

Down 6.56% as the Hormuz risk premium drained out and the market treated the disruption as priced.

Brent Crude73.19 (-6.05% 1W · +1.67% 1D)

Off 6.05%, the global crude benchmark falling in step and pulling inflation breakevens lower.

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)3.295 (+1.29% 1W · +1.98% 1D)

Up 1.29%, the lone commodity gainer on the week.

Gold4,072 (-2.63% 1W · -0.16% 1D)

Down 2.63%, falling alongside the dollar's gain and reviving questions about its portfolio role.

Silver59.08 (-9.85% 1W · -0.24% 1D)

Fell 9.85%, the sharpest move in the commodity complex, a momentum unwind into a firm dollar.

Copper6.192 (-2.59% 1W · +0.82% 1D)

Off 2.59% in the broad metals washout despite no clear demand signal.

Bitcoin59,520 (-5.02% 1W · -0.70% 1D)

Down 5.02% and below $60, 000 on ETF outflows, a firmer dollar and stress at its largest corporate buyer.

Global yield curves — 1-week shift

United States · sovereign curveTradingView · Jun 25

━ today┄┄ prior week

4.9%

4.1%

2Y5Y10Y30Y

United StatesUST yields (TradingView, real-time)

2Y4.096% (-8.3bp)

5Y4.134% (-9.8bp)

10Y4.376% (-7.9bp)

30Y4.867% (-3.3bp)

Euro area · sovereign curveTradingView · Jun 26

━ today┄┄ prior week

3.54%

2.52%

2Y5Y10Y30Y

Euro areaBund (EUR risk-free proxy)

2Y2.52% (-12.6bp)

5Y2.589% (-13.3bp)

10Y2.856% (-13.3bp)

30Y3.415% (-12.9bp)

Euro-area yields fell about 13bp across the curve on the week, out-rallying the US as markets pared ECB tightening expectations after the recent hike, with activity near stagnation.

Japan · sovereign curveTradingView · Jun 25

━ today┄┄ prior week

3.85%

1.4%

2Y5Y10Y30Y

JapanJGB yields

2Y1.402% (-0.2bp)

5Y1.872% (-1.7bp)

10Y2.613% (-3.3bp)

30Y3.806% (-4.2bp)

JGB yields eased only 2bp to 4bp, the smallest G10 move, leaving the Japan curve an outlier as the equity selloff, not the bond market, carried the local signal.

United Kingdom · sovereign curveTradingView · Jun 26

━ today┄┄ prior week

5.55%

4.14%

2Y5Y10Y30Y

United Kingdomgilt yields

2Y4.137% (-13bp)

5Y4.284% (-12.3bp)

10Y4.739% (-10.9bp)

30Y5.454% (-9.3bp)

Gilt yields dropped 11bp to 13bp on the week, rallying alongside Europe, as the market weighed energy-driven inflation against a slowing economy, the backdrop to Allspring's case for non-US duration.

Canada · sovereign curveTradingView · Jun 26

━ today┄┄ prior week

3.81%

2.75%

2Y5Y10Y30Y

CanadaGoC benchmark yields

2Y2.749% (-3.1bp)

5Y3.013% (-3.3bp)

10Y3.386% (-1.1bp)

30Y3.795% (-1.8bp)

Green = yields lower (bond rally) · red = yields higher (selloff). When shown, the US curve here is the real-time TradingView curve; the rates section above is the settled FRED curve and can lag by a session.

Quantitative framework

Cross-asset directional skew · 5-day lean

S&P 500

Bullish 23%

Nasdaq 100

Bullish 70%

Russell 2000

Bullish 40%

US Dollar (DXY)

Bullish 40%

EUR/USD

Bearish 70%

USD/JPY

Bullish 40%

Gold

Bearish 70%

WTI Crude

Bearish 40%

Copper

Bullish 23%

Bitcoin

Bearish 40%

UST 2Y (bond)

Bearish 70%

UST 10Y (bond)

Bearish 23%

Financial conditions (NFCI)2Y · May 31 → Jun 19

-0.52 · looser than avg · 22th %ile · >0 = tighter

-0.36

-0.57

May 31

Jun 19

Net Fed liquidity (WALCL − RRP − TGA)2Y · Jun 05 → Jun 24

$5.81tn · -59.8bn / 4w

6,253

5,596

Jun 05

Jun 24

Stock–bond correlation (60d)1Y · Jun 16 → Jun 25

0.62 · positive · inflation regime

0.71

-0.22

Jun 16

Jun 25

Yield curve · 2s10s spread1Y · Jun 16 → Jun 26

Bull flattening · 0.31 · -15bp/20d

0.74%

0.27%

Jun 16

Jun 26

Sector breadth · % > 50d MA1Y · Jun 26 → Jun 26

73% > 50d · 82% > 200d

100%

Jun 26

Equity vol · VIX vs VIX3M (term structure)6M · Dec 18 → Jun 26

● VIX● VIX3M

30.6

13.5

Dec 18

Jun 26

Rate vol · MOVE index6M · Dec 18 → Jun 26

MOVE 67 · 10th %ile · VIX term 0.91 (contango)

115

55.8

Dec 18

Jun 26

Credit wrap

HY OAS 278bp (-43 vs avg)

IG OAS 76bp (-17 vs avg)

Trailing average over the available FRED daily window (~3y; the graph endpoint caps these BAML series).

Analyst intelligence: gold valuation model

Our residual model flags gold as rich vs real-yield model, sitting at +$656/oz versus the level implied by the 10Y real yield (2.19%). Spot $4031 vs model-fair $3375.

Past 24h releases

Calendar · week ahead

Day ahead

Sun, Jun 28, 2026

●JP Large Retailer Sales · prev 207:50 PM ET / 07:50 AM SGT

●JP Retail Trade (YoY) · cons 3.2 / prev 2.107:50 PM ET / 07:50 AM SGT

●JP Retail Trade s.a (MoM) · prev 1.307:50 PM ET / 07:50 AM SGT

Rest of the week (high importance)

Mon, Jun 29, 2026

●EMU ECB's President Lagarde speech01:30 PM ET / 01:30 AM SGT

●AU RBA Meeting Minutes09:30 PM ET / 09:30 AM SGT

●CN NBS Manufacturing PMI · cons 50.1 / prev 5009:30 PM ET / 09:30 AM SGT

●CN NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI · cons 49.9 / prev 50.109:30 PM ET / 09:30 AM SGT

Tue, Jun 30, 2026

●EMU Retail Sales (YoY) · cons 0 / prev -0.302:00 AM ET / 02:00 PM SGT

●UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) · cons 0.6 / prev 0.602:00 AM ET / 02:00 PM SGT

●UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) · cons 1.1 / prev 1.102:00 AM ET / 02:00 PM SGT

●EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM) · cons 0.1 / prev -0.208:00 AM ET / 08:00 PM SGT

●EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) · cons 2.5 / prev 2.608:00 AM ET / 08:00 PM SGT

●EMU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) · cons 2.7 / prev 2.708:00 AM ET / 08:00 PM SGT

●JP Tankan Large Manufacturing Index · cons 16 / prev 1707:50 PM ET / 07:50 AM SGT

●CN RatingDog Manufacturing PMI · cons 51.7 / prev 51.809:45 PM ET / 09:45 AM SGT

Wed, Jul 01, 2026

●EMU Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) · prev 0.305:00 AM ET / 05:00 PM SGT

●EMU Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) · cons 2.6 / prev 2.605:00 AM ET / 05:00 PM SGT

●EMU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) · prev 0.105:00 AM ET / 05:00 PM SGT

●EMU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) · cons 3 / prev 3.205:00 AM ET / 05:00 PM SGT

●US ADP Employment Change · cons 118 / prev 12208:15 AM ET / 08:15 PM SGT

●CA BoC's Governor Macklem speech09:00 AM ET / 09:00 PM SGT

●EMU ECB's President Lagarde speech09:00 AM ET / 09:00 PM SGT

●UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech09:30 AM ET / 09:30 PM SGT

●EMU ECB's President Lagarde speech10:00 AM ET / 10:00 PM SGT

●US ISM Manufacturing PMI · cons 53.7 / prev 5410:00 AM ET / 10:00 PM SGT

●AU Trade Balance (MoM) · cons 2200 / prev 179109:30 PM ET / 09:30 AM SGT

Thu, Jul 02, 2026

●CH Consumer Price Index (YoY) · prev 0.602:30 AM ET / 02:30 PM SGT

●US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) · cons 0.3 / prev 0.308:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

●US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) · prev 3.408:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

●US Nonfarm Payrolls · cons 114 / prev 17208:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

●CN RatingDog Services PMI · prev 54.409:45 PM ET / 09:45 AM SGT

Fri, Jul 03, 2026

●EMU ECB's President Lagarde speech04:00 AM ET / 04:00 PM SGT

●UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech11:00 AM ET / 11:00 PM SGT

Countdown to key data

Eurozone HICP · EMU

T−1d

Mon, Jun 29, 2026 · 03:00 AM ET / 03:00 PM SGT

prev 3.6

Nonfarm payrolls · US

T−4d

Thu, Jul 02, 2026 · 08:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

cons 114 · prev 172

FOMC minutes · US

T−10d

Wed, Jul 08, 2026 · 02:00 PM ET / 02:00 AM SGT

CPI · US

T−16d

Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · 08:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

prev 4.2

Core CPI · US

T−16d

Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · 08:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

prev 2.9

China GDP · CN

T−17d

Wed, Jul 15, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM SGT

prev 5

ECB decision · EMU

T−25d

Thu, Jul 23, 2026 · 08:15 AM ET / 08:15 PM SGT

prev 2.4

FOMC decision · US

T−31d

Wed, Jul 29, 2026 · 02:00 PM ET / 02:00 AM SGT

prev 3.75

BoJ decision · JP

T−32d

Thu, Jul 30, 2026 · 11:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM SGT

prev 1

PCE · US

T−33d

Fri, Jul 31, 2026 · 08:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

prev 4.1

Core PCE · US

T−33d

Fri, Jul 31, 2026 · 08:30 AM ET / 08:30 PM SGT

prev 3.4

Macro Weekly Brief

Generated 2026-06-28 23:38 UTC · prices Yahoo Finance · rates FRED · calendar FXStreet · news scraped · narrative + models computed in-house. For information only; not investment advice.